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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.” 

  • J.M. Barrie

TECH CORNER

Just a short note this week.

First, we want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. I also want to wish for Oregon State to  beat Oregon so that Arizona can play for the Pac 12 Championship.

The stock markets have recently been rallying due to the Fed pausing raising interest rates. They kept them to low longer than they should have which fueled inflation and upward speculation in the stock and real estate markets.  Then when inflation got out of control, they raised rates at an unprecedented fast rate and raised them too high. In my opinion this qualifies as complete mismanagement of the situation.

The stock market thinks that we are going to have a “soft landing”, however the data says not so fast.

Many economists that I follow say we are already in a recession.

For example, here are a few recent reports.

*People who have asked for an increase in their spending limits has gone up a record +17.8% year over year. 

*82% of states reported an increase in unemployment claims. Since 1976 this high percentage has occurred nine times with eight of the nine coming during a recession.

*Part time worker employment has started to decline. This has happens before recessions.

*The Leasing Indicator Index has declined for the 19th straight month. This has only been surpassed by the Great Recession of 2008-2009 and the brutal recession of 1974.

*The Conference Board’s recession trigger for the Leading Economic Indicators is -4.5%. October’s reading was -7.3%.

In the managed accounts we are still positioned for safety in a Money Market and ultra short term Treasuries. In the variable annuities we are positioned for safety in intermediate duration high quality bond funds.  

Source: Danelle Di Martino Booth

If you have friends or family in need of financial life planning services,

It would be the honor of Laurence Lof Financial Advisors to assist them.

We value your referrals!

These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.

The S&P 500 index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Laurence Lof Financial Advisors 4757 E Camp Lowell Drive Tucson AZ 85712 info@lofadvisors.com

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State Disclosure: Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SPIC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Lof Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Investment products and services available only to residents of: Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Colorado (CO), Florida (FL), Idaho (ID), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Massachusetts (MA), Minnesota (MN), Montana (MT), North Carolina (NC), North Dakota (ND), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Ohio (OH), Pennsylvania (PA), Texas (TX), Virginia (VA), Wisconsin (Wl), Wyoming (WY). We are licensed to sell insurance products in the following states of: Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Colorado (CO), Florida (FL), Idaho (ID), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Montana (MT), North Dakota (ND), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Pennsylvania (PA), Virginia (VA), Wisconsin (Wl).
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