Nothing’s Changed
Still expecting a recession
The Big Debate…
Deep recession, soft landing or none at all.
We Are Getting Closer
There are many indicators that point to a recession.
Common Scams To Watch For
Don’t be the victim of a scam
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “When you practice gratefulness, there is a sense of respect toward others.” – Dalai Lama TECH CORNER Not much to report this week. So far this month the bond market is down about 3%, the S&P 500 is down 4% and the Nasdaq is down 6%. The stock market failed to […]
What Is The Yield Curve?
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “When you practice gratefulness, there is a sense of respect toward others” – Dalai Lama TECH CORNER Let’s talk about the Yield Curve today and how it affects the economy. First what is the Yield Curve? There are multiple Yield Curve examples but today we will talk about the most common, […]
U.S Credit Card Debt
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Gratitude makes sense of our past, brings peace for today, and creates a vision for tomorrow.” Melody Beattie TECH CORNER Not much to report. I did hear this morning that the US credit card debt officially just passed $1trillion. Combine that with the fact interest rates on credit card balances have […]
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “It does not matter how slow you go as long a you do not stop.” – Confucius TECH CORNER Last month we had a slight increase in interest rates resulting in a small decline in bond values. We currently own Treasuries and investment grade bonds at high interest rates. I expect […]
The U.S. Consumer
Let’s tak a look at some statistics
Is a recession on the way?
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “With confidence, you have won before you have started” – Marcus Garvey TECH CORNER This week I am going to paraphrase from Stanley Druckenmiller, a famous asset manager, who has never had a losing year whom I happen to agree with. We both agree that a recession is on the way […]
Stock market rally this year
QUOTE OF THE WEEK“The secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes.” -Benjamin Disraeli TECH CORNER This week will be a short letter. I am recovering from a shoulder replacement surgery of a previous replacement that went bad which is why I didn’t publish the […]
The Fed Has Paused Raising Interest Rates
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The secret of contentment is knowing how to enjoy what you have and to be able to lose all desire for things beyond your reach.” – Lin Yutang TECH CORNER As we expected the Fed has decided to pause raising interest rates. Chairman Powell said that they were going to follow […]
Confirmation That The Economy Is Slowing
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Hard times don’t create heroes. It is during the hard times when the ‘hero’ within us is revealed.”– Bob Riley TECH CORNER Last week the Debt Ceiling Extension passed with 63 yes votes and 36 no votes in the Senate and 314 yes votes and 117 no votes in the House. […]
Debt Ceiling Debate
The really big issue is the coming debt ceiling debate. We are the only country on the planet that has this stupid issue.
Oil in the engine
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.” – Confucius TECH CORNER The most recent update from Omega Squared, our investment advisory partner, is that we are not quite yet in a recession but we are getting close and looks like we will be […]
Earnings season?
50% or so rally off the bottom. Don’t be fooled by this rally. The data is still negative.
Corporate Earnings Season is Starting
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Kind words are the music of the world.” – F. W. Faber TECH CORNER Corporate Earnings Season is Starting First quarter earnings season has already started and will last through Memorial Day. Some banks have already reported showing big banks doing well and some small banks not so much. As far […]
Five Questions about Long-Term Care
Grab some popcorn and the drink of your choice. Sit back and watch the first quarter data come in.
Turmoil in the banking sector
The failed banks bought those long duration Treasuries when interest rates were low.
Officials Considered Pausing Increases
Projection of interest rates
The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
The FDIC’s guarantee
Week of March 6, 2023
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The soul would have no rainbow if the eyes had no tears.” – Native American Proverb TECH CORNER Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified today before Congress and the equity markets didn’t like what he had to say….
Equity Market, Economy and Housing Front
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a brokem winged bird that cannot fly.” TECH CORNER Last week was a bad week for the equity markets. The S&P 500 was down -2.66%, the Dow was down -2.97% and the Nasdaq was down -3.31%. As of Wednesday morning of […]
Last week’s Fed meeting
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.” TECH CORNER Last week the equity markets were pretty much flat with the S&P 500 -0.20%, the Dow up+ 0.02%, and the Nasdaq up +0.63%. What was telling was that the markets started the week up, […]
Markets fighting the bad economics news
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “One way to get the most out of life is to look upon it as an adventure.” – William Feather TECH CORNER Last week the equity markets declined with the S&P 500 down -1.07%, the Dow down -0.11% and the Nasdaq down -2.37%. This week as of Thursday, the markets are pretty […]
Are we are headed for a recession?
QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The size of success is measured by the strength of your desire, the size of your dream, and how you handle disappointment along the way.” – Robert Kiyosaki TECH CORNER There was no letter last week. I was waiting for the results of the Fed meeting and by the time I […]
IRA Contribution Limits
So far this year, as of this writing, the S&P 500 is up 3.2% YTD and the Nasdaq is up 6.1% YTD but the Bear Market is not over…
Bear Market Is Not Over
So far this year, as of this writing, the S&P 500 is up 3.2% YTD and the Nasdaq is up 6.1% YTD but the Bear Market is not over…
Equity Markets Have Held Steady For The 4th Quarter
The year has started off well for the equity markets. Last week the equity markets were up between 1% and 2%…
Economic Indicators Are Much Clearer
The economic indicators are much clearer this year than last year. With the addition of Omega Squared as our new advisor…
Volatility Spiking
We are still in Quad IV and getting deeper with the trend declining. Because of the strength of the downward trend, it looks like this trend should continue for a few more months. Of course, trends could change but the math doesn’t see that happening any time soon.
Social Security Survivor Benefits
However, no one needs more than 40 credits (10 years of work) to be “fully insured” for benefits.
The Decline
In other words, growth and inflation slowdown are imminent, and we can expect a deep Quad IV in the second quarter of 2022, whether you like it or not.
Quad 4
We are starting to see the signs of Quad IV coming down the tracks now.
Inheritance?
As much as we would appreciate a normal distribution of stock price returns, that’s just not how the stock market game works.
PVV
The three factors are Price, Volume, and Volatility with Volatility being the most important.
Inflation
We will soon start having some headwinds as people on unemployment and getting the extra $300 per month will soon lose the $300.
Infrastructure & College Funding
We don’t see a change in the Quads coming soon so it looks like smooth sailing for a while.
More on Housing
Yet, the number of initial jobless claimants remains at 16 million or roughly ten times the 1.7 million job unemployment claimants in January 2020.
Taxation of Investments
This rapid increase in housing prices may moderate going forward.
