Interesting Times

Quote of the Week

Excellence is never an accident.  It represents the wise choice of many alternatives.  Choice, not chance, determines your destiny.”  –Malika E. Nura

Technical Corner

“May we live in interesting times.” A Chinese expression.

Having lived through an Internet bubble, the attacks of 9/11, and the Great Financial Crisis during my career in financial planning, I thought I had seen just about everything. Wrong. I never expected anything as “interesting” as a global pandemic, the worst GDP decline in modern history, mass protests across America, and the sharpest sell-off and the quickest recovery in U.S. stock market history. And it is only June.

But what I see now when I look around, I see the signs of rampant speculation and investing complacency everywhere.

  1. Bankrupt companies are routinely the highest gainers in the stock market.
  2. The Put/Call ratio is at an absolutely extreme level near the year lows which is a sign of complacency. This is a ratio of negativity vs enthusiasm or in other words investors are way more positive than negative.
  3. In the last 10 weeks, every single stock in the S&P 500 is up.
  4. The smallest and worst companies are doing the best.
  5. Every taxi cab driver and shoeshine boy has a Robin Hood account and is minting it. A Robin Hood account is an internet account where you can invest as little as $1 to buy partial shares of a company.
  6. And, every investor is an expert and is doing end zone celebrations due to their trading prowess.

Time will tell how the story ends, but the signs are all there as just before the 1929 market crash (top to bottom down 89%). As Warren Buffet famously said: “In the short run the stock market is a voting machine and in the long run it’s a weighing machine”

If you have friends or family in need of financial life planning services,

It would be the honor of Laurence Lof Financial Advisors to assist them.

We value your referrals!

These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.

The S&P 500 index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Laurence Lof Financial Advisors 4757 E Camp Lowell Drive Tucson AZ 85712 info@lofadvisors.com

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State Disclosure: Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SPIC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Lof Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Investment products and services available only to residents of: Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Colorado (CO), Florida (FL), Idaho (ID), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Massachusetts (MA), Minnesota (MN), Montana (MT), North Carolina (NC), North Dakota (ND), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Ohio (OH), Pennsylvania (PA), Texas (TX), Virginia (VA), Wisconsin (Wl), Wyoming (WY). We are licensed to sell insurance products in the following states of: Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Colorado (CO), Florida (FL), Idaho (ID), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Montana (MT), North Dakota (ND), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Pennsylvania (PA), Virginia (VA), Wisconsin (Wl).
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