Is a recession on the way?

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “With confidence, you have won before you have started” – Marcus Garvey TECH CORNER This week I am going to paraphrase from Stanley Druckenmiller, a famous asset manager, who has never had a losing year whom I happen to agree with. We both agree that a recession is on the way […]

Stock market rally this year

QUOTE OF THE WEEK“The secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes.” -Benjamin Disraeli TECH CORNER This week will be a short letter. I am recovering from a shoulder replacement surgery of a previous replacement that went bad which is why I didn’t publish the […]

The Fed Has Paused Raising Interest Rates

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The secret of contentment is knowing how to enjoy what you have and to be able to lose all desire for things beyond your reach.” – Lin Yutang TECH CORNER As we expected the Fed has decided to pause raising interest rates. Chairman Powell said that they were going to follow […]

Confirmation That The Economy Is Slowing

Economy Is Slowing

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Hard times don’t create heroes.  It is during the hard times when the ‘hero’ within us is revealed.”– Bob Riley TECH CORNER Last week the Debt Ceiling Extension passed with 63 yes votes and 36 no votes in the Senate and 314 yes votes and 117 no votes in the House.  […]

Debt Ceiling Debate

The really big issue is the coming debt ceiling debate. We are the only country on the planet that has this stupid issue.

Oil in the engine

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.” – Confucius TECH CORNER The most recent update from Omega Squared, our investment advisory partner, is that we are not quite yet in a recession but we are getting close and looks like we will be […]

Earnings season?

50% or so rally off the bottom. Don’t be fooled by this rally. The data is still negative.

Corporate Earnings Season is Starting

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Kind words are the music of the world.” – F. W. Faber TECH CORNER Corporate Earnings Season is Starting First quarter earnings season has already started and will last through Memorial Day. Some banks have already reported showing big banks doing well and some small banks not so much. As far […]

Week of March 6, 2023

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The soul would have no rainbow if the eyes had no tears.” – Native American Proverb TECH CORNER Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified today before Congress and the equity markets didn’t like what he had to say….

Equity Market, Economy and Housing Front

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a brokem winged bird that cannot fly.”  TECH CORNER Last week was a bad week for the equity markets. The S&P 500 was down -2.66%, the Dow was down -2.97% and the Nasdaq was down -3.31%. As of Wednesday morning of […]

Last week’s Fed meeting

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.” TECH CORNER Last week the equity markets were pretty much flat with the S&P 500 -0.20%, the Dow up+ 0.02%, and the Nasdaq up +0.63%. What was telling was that the markets started the week up, […]

Markets fighting the bad economics news

Week of 2-13-2023

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “One way to get the most out of life is to look upon it as an adventure.” – William Feather TECH CORNER Last week the equity markets declined with the S&P 500 down -1.07%, the Dow down -0.11% and the Nasdaq down -2.37%. This week as of Thursday, the markets are pretty […]

Are we are headed for a recession?

Are we are headed for a recession

QUOTE OF THE WEEK “The size of success is measured by the strength of your desire, the size of your dream, and how you handle disappointment along the way.” – Robert Kiyosaki TECH CORNER There was no letter last week. I was waiting for the results of the Fed meeting and by the time I […]

IRA Contribution Limits

So far this year, as of this writing, the S&P 500 is up 3.2% YTD and the Nasdaq is up 6.1% YTD but the Bear Market is not over…

Bear Market Is Not Over

The U.S. Consumer is in great shape

So far this year, as of this writing, the S&P 500 is up 3.2% YTD and the Nasdaq is up 6.1% YTD but the Bear Market is not over…

Volatility Spiking

03.01.2022_March_in_like_a_bear_cartoon__1_

We are still in Quad IV and getting deeper with the trend declining. Because of the strength of the downward trend, it looks like this trend should continue for a few more months. Of course, trends could change but the math doesn’t see that happening any time soon.

The Decline

rgorogrog

In other words, growth and inflation slowdown are imminent, and we can expect a deep Quad IV in the second quarter of 2022, whether you like it or not.

Quad 4

quad 4

We are starting to see the signs of Quad IV coming down the tracks now.

Inheritance?

Brownian

As much as we would appreciate a normal distribution of stock price returns, that’s just not how the stock market game works.

PVV

Fib

The three factors are Price, Volume, and Volatility with Volatility being the most important.

Inflation

We will soon start having some headwinds as people on unemployment and getting the extra $300 per month will soon lose the $300.

More on Housing

Three_Pigs

Yet, the number of initial jobless claimants remains at 16 million or roughly ten times the 1.7 million job unemployment claimants in January 2020.

Grocery Prices Apocalypse

inflation-5.19.2021

The inflation issue comes down to exceedingly low inventories and increased demand due to the public “getting out of jail” with lots of money in their pockets

Jobs

Noah_s__ARKK

The US job market added only 266,000 jobs in April, falling really far short of expectations of one million new jobs.

Personal Income Rises

Gesundheit

Starting in Mid March and through most of April, there has been a swing from growth outperformance to value outperformance.

Incapacity

tax_reform_cartoon

What we are now seeing is a rotation from value investing back towards growth investing.

Retail Sales

Powell_Bull_Massage

We think that the March report is the start of what will be an extraordinary year in household spending.

Your Compete Number

Vikings

You may want to check how you have local numbers entered into your cell phones.

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